Introduction to Dynamic Unary Encoding

Dynamic unary encoding takes unary encoding to the next level. Every n-bit binary string is an encoding of dynamic unary and every n-bit binary string is encodable by dynamic unary. By utilizing both forms of unary code and a single bit of parity information dynamic unary encoding partitions 2^n non-negative integers into n sets of disjoint cycles of n-bit elements. These cycles have been employed as virtual data sets, binary transforms and as a mathematical object. Characterization of both the cycles and of the cycle spectrum is given. Examples of encoding and decoding algorithms are given. Examples of other constructs utilizing the principles of dynamic unary encoding are presented. The cycle as a mathematical object is demonstrated.Comment: Seven pages of text, two pages of flow charts and two pages of data. Introduces an encoding scheme and a mathematical objec

Farm Level Risk Assessment Using Downside Risk Measures

Recent and presumable future developments tend to increase the risk associated with farming activities. This causes an increasing importance of risk management. Farmers have a wide variety of possibilities to influence the risk exposure of their operations. Among them are the choice of the production program as well as marketing activities including forward pricing and hedging with futures and options. In total all these opportunities comprise a portfolio of activities which must be selected as to match the resources of the farm as well as the farmer's attitudes towards risk. The paper addresses this issue using a whole farm stochastic optimisation approach based on a risk-value framework. The paper starts with a discussion of risk-value models and the relationship between them and the expected utility hypothesis. In the second part the approach is incorporated in a whole farm model that optimizes a portfolio of production activities and risk management instruments. A case study is used to analyse the possibilities and limitations of the approach and to illustrate the effects of yield and production risk on decision making.downside risk, risk management, risk measure, risk-value models, stochastic optimisation, Risk and Uncertainty,

EFFICIENCY OF WIND INDEXED TYPHOON INSURANCE FOR RICE

Index-based weather insurances are innovative tools for mitigating weather risks in agriculture. Several donor agencies and development organisations are investing substantially to propagate these programmes in developing countries. However, often due to high basis risks, these products mitigate risk only through diversification effect, thereby defeating the intended purpose. Besides, they send confusing messages to the farmers regarding the very concept of insurance. Therefore, this paper investigates the efficiency of two such index-based weather insurances in Philippines, designed to mitigate rice yield loss caused by strong typhoon winds. The insurance products are designed assuming negative linear correlation between wind speed and rice yield. To verify, we used satellite data and GIS tools to tabulate typhoon wind speeds, concurrent crop stage and the subsequent rice yield in five provinces which have both the programmes. Regression analyses and Ramsey RESET tests confirm that rice yield loss is not a function of incident typhoon wind speed, irrespective of the crop stage. Basis risk estimations, based on minimum variance hedging ratio for a risk averse expected utility maximising consumer show that the products entail basis risks of the order of 99%. Typhoons damage all crops, but wind indexed insurance is inadequate when the insured crop has low head weight and is agile like rice, since wind onslaughts do not determine the degree of yield loss. Notably, a thorough burn analysis for basis risk is a necessity before investing time and money implementing index-based weather insurance schemes as a tool for poverty alleviation.Basis risk, Typhoon, Index-based Insurance, Crop Production/Industries, Risk and Uncertainty,

The Farm as an Enterprise – The European Perspective

Farming conditions in Europe are changing substantially. The liberalisation of agricultural commodity markets is accompanied by an increasing societal demand for environmental services to be provided by the farming sector. Significant changes are necessary to enable the farming sector to cope with these challenges. The paper describes some general developments of the past and outlines perspectives for the future. Explicit consideration is given to the future of single ownership family farms on one hand, and the perspectives and structural requirements of large scale farming in crop and livestock production on the other hand. The analysis shows that the future competitiveness of the European farming sector largely depends on political decisions. Given the romantic views of the majority of the population as well as many politicians it is everything but certain that the agricultural policy will provide the basis for an economically efficient and therefore globally competitive farming sector in Europe.Agricultural and Food Policy, Farm Management,

Weather Derivatives as an Instrument to Hedge Against the Risk of High Energy Cost in Greenhouse Production

In many areas agriculture is exposed to weather related risks. Weather derivatives that get more and more in the focus of interest can reduce these risks. In this study we develop a temperature based weather derivative and analyse how it can reduce the weather-related energy cost risk in greenhouse production. We base this study on a temperature index whose stochastic characteristics are analysed. Finally we simulate the heating demand for energy of a horticultural firm.Environmental Economics and Policy, Risk and Uncertainty, C22, D8, Q14,

Weather derivatives as an instrument to hedge against the risk of high energy cost in greenhouse production

In many areas agriculture is exposed to weather-related risks. Weather derivatives that get more and more in the focus of interest can reduce these risks. In this study we develop a temperature based weather derivative and analyse how it can reduce the weather-related energy cost risk in greenhouse production. We base this study on a temperature index whose stochastic characteristics are analysed. Finally we simulate the heating energy demand of a horticultural firm.Risk and Uncertainty,

Zur Organisation der Agrar- und Ernährungswissenschaften

Teaching/Communication/Extension/Profession,

Explaining the German hog price cycle: A nonlinear dynamics approach

We investigated German hog-price dynamics with an innovative ‘diagnostic’ modeling approach. Hog-price cycles are conventionally modeled stochastically—most recently as randomly-shifting sinusoidal oscillations. Alternatively, we applied nonlinear time series analysis to empirically reconstruct a deterministic, low-dimensional, and nonlinear attractor from observed hog prices. We next formulated a structural (explanatory) model of the pork industry to synthesize the empirical hog-price attractor. Model simulations demonstrate that low price-elasticity of demand contributes to aperiodic price cycling – a well know result – and further reveal two other important driving factors: investment irreversibility (caused by high specificity of technology), and liquidity-driven investment behavior of German farmers

Economic Dynamics of the German Hog-Price Cycle

We investigated the economic dynamics of the German hog-price cycle with an innovative ‘diagnostic’ modeling approach. Hog-price cycles are conventionally modeled stochastically—most recently as randomly-shifting sinusoidal oscillations. Alternatively, we applied Nonlinear Time Series analysis to empirically reconstruct a deterministic, low-dimensional, and nonlinear attractor from observed hog prices. We next formulated a structural (explanatory) model of the pork industry to synthesize the empirical hog-price attractor. Model simulations demonstrate that low price-elasticity of demand contributes to aperiodic price cycling – a well know result – and further reveal two other important driving factors: investment irreversibility (caused by high specificity of technology), and liquidity-driven investment behavior of German farmers

Grondwateronttrekking en infiltratie te Fikkerdries

Verzoek uitbreiding grondwaterwinning door pompstation Fikkersdries (Betuwe